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A trade surplus is an economic indicator of a positive trade balance in which the exports of a nation outweigh its imports. Trade balance can be arrived by reducing the total value of imports from the total value of exports.
In 2019, China was the country with the highest trade surplus with approximately 421.9 billion U.S. dollars. Typically a trade surplus indicates a sign of economic success and a trade deficit indicates an economic weakness.
A trade surplus represents a net inflow of domestic currency from foreign markets. It is the opposite of a trade deficit, which represents a net outflow, and occurs when the result of the above calculation is negative. In the United States, trade balances are reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Trade surplus is defined as that a nation is exporting more than it imports, giving it an inflow of currency. An example of trade surplus is that China is exporting more goods than China imports from other countries.
A positive trade balance (surplus) is when exports exceed imports. A negative trade balance (deficit) is when exports are less than imports. Use the balance of trade to compare a country’s economy to its trading partners. A trade surplus is harmful only when the government uses protectionism.
Impact on growth. If the government is forced to increase taxes / cut spending to meet a budget surplus, it could have an adverse effect on the rate of economic growth. If government spending is cut, then it will negatively affect AD and could lead to lower growth. A budget surplus doesn’t have to cause lower growth.
The huge current account surplus implies that a poor country that badly needs investment finds economic prospects so weak that it is not investing. So, a rise in foreign exchange reserves means that a poor country like India is in effect lending enormous sums to rich countries.
Overview. A surplus implies the government has extra funds. These funds can be allocated toward public debt, which reduces interest rates and helps the economy. A budget surplus can be used to reduce taxes, start new programs or fund existing programs such as Social Security or Medicare.
The effect of a current account surplus
Germany
In simple words, Current Account Deficit (CAD) arises when the value of exports of goods and services is less than the value of imports of goods and services. Current Account surplus (CAS) is a situation that arises when the receipts on current account is more than the payments on current account.
A “major contribution” to the current account surplus came from the trade surplus, a ministry official said. Primary income shrank 2.6% to a surplus of ¥1.79 trillion, after returns on foreign investments decreased.
A surplus in the capital account means money is flowing into the country, but unlike a surplus in the current account, the inbound flows effectively represent borrowings or sales of assets rather than payment for work.
Australia’s current account surplus in seasonally adjusted terms decreased $6.3 billion to $10.0 billion in the September quarter 2020, driven mainly by a decreased goods and services surplus, according to latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
China’s current account returned to surplus in the second quarter due to better-than-expected exports and reduced overseas travel during the global pandemic. The current-account balance at the end of June was $119.6 billion, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said Friday.
SAFE Releases China’s Balance of Payments for the Second Quarter and the First Half of 2020. In the second quarter of 2020, China’s current account registered a surplus of RMB 780.4 billion, and the capital and financial accounts recorded a deficit of RMB 244.3 billion.
The Commerce Department said on Friday the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, widened 10.6% to $178.5 billion last quarter.
The current account deficit is a measurement of a country’s trade where the value of the goods and services it imports exceeds the value of the products it exports. The current account represents a country’s foreign transactions and, like the capital account, is a component of a country’s balance of payments (BOP).
There are various factors which could cause a current account deficit:
The trade balance is the amount a country receives for the export of goods and services minus the amount it pays for its import of goods and services. The current account is the trade balance plus the net amount received for domestically-owned factors of production used abroad.
India’s current account deficit (CAD) is pegged at $13 billion or 1.9% of the GDP in Q4 of 2017-18, which increased from $2.6 billion or 0.4% of the GDP in Q4 of 2016-17. India’s trade deficit increased to $160 billion in 2017-18 from $112.4 billion in 2016-17.
Hence, a rising current account deficit leads to an increased supply of a nation’s currency in the foreign exchange markets. The rising net trade deficit might have also been caused by a drop in the value of exports which will cause an inward shift in the demand for a currency – this will also lead to a depreciation.
The current account deficit is an important signal of competitiveness and the level of imports and exports. A large current account deficit usually implies some kind of imbalance in the economy, which needs correcting with a depreciation in the exchange rate and / or improved competitiveness over time.
What is more important, a country’s current account balance or the growth of GDP? The growth of GDP is more important because GDP represent health of economy. Higher GDP implies improvement in growth of economy, low rate of unemployment and high rate of wages.
When looking at a country’s current account, it’s important to understand the four basic components that factor into it: goods, services, income, and current transfers.
An overvalued currency makes imports cheaper and exports less competitive, thereby widening the current account deficit (or narrowing the surplus). An undervalued currency, on the other hand, boosts exports and makes imports more expensive, thus increasing the current account surplus (or narrowing the deficit).
Balance of trade in services (invisibles) e.g. tourism, insurance. Net income flows. Primary income flows (wages and investment income) Net current transfers. Secondary income flows (e.g. government transfers to UN, EU)
Current Account Surplus Across the World In 2016, according to the World Bank, the ten countries with the largest current account surpluses were Germany, China, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Singapore, Italy, Thailand and Russia.
How depreciation may affect the current account. If there is a depreciation in the exchange rate. Assuming demand for exports is relatively elastic then a depreciation will lead to an increase in the value of exports and therefore improve the current account deficit.