The New York Times’ Fourth Down Bot (which utilized Burke’s models) offers these rules of thumb for sound decisions: On fourth-and-1, go for it any place on the field where that is possible, starting at your 9-yard line. On fourth-and-2, go for it everywhere beyond your 28-yard line.

Any player of either team may recover or catch a fumble and advance, either before or after the ball strikes the ground.

Note: A ball that is intentionally fumbled and goes forward is a forward pass. A ball that is intentionally muffed, and goes forward or backward, is a batted ball (12-1-8). If the player loses possession after he has tucked the ball into his body, it is a fumble.

Near your opponent’s goal line, going for it is better because your opponent is left with poor field position even if you fail — and you’ll often get the ball back near midfield in short order. As a rule of thumb: On fourth-and-1, go for it any place on the field where that is possible, starting at your 9-yard line.

Now NFL teams are going for it 69 percent of the time on fourth-and-1, and they’re converting 77 percent of those attempts. More teams going for it, and succeeding, on fourth down means more offenses ultimately scoring touchdowns.

In fact, on all 4th and 2 plays in the since the 1998-1999 season, quarterback sneaks were successful 89.7% of the time, greater than the 82.8% of the time for 4th and 1….Fall, 2015.

Looking at a five-year sample dating back to 2015, when NFL teams have been in third- or fourth-and-1 situations, the quarterback sneak has been the call on just 10% of plays compared to 60% for other non-sneak designed runs and 30% for designed pass plays.

Brady’s run in New England remains the gold standard for quarterback sneaks in the NFL. From 2001 through 2019, Brady led the league in QB sneaks with 157– 85 more than Drew Brees, who had the second most. However, Newton has a pretty solid track record himself when it comes to sneak.

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: a usually quick run with the ball by a quarterback into the middle of the offensive line.